Respiratory disease leading stocks

There is no "absolute leading stock for respiratory diseases" recognized by the entire market in the A-share market - this track spans four completely different subdivisions: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and consumables. The barriers of different tracks are very different. In addition, different investment schools have completely different standards for defining "leading stocks". No one can come up with an answer that everyone agrees with.

Don't believe it, in the past two years, I went to chain pharmacies in South China with researchers from the brokerage's pharmaceutical group, and we argued with people for half an afternoon just because of this matter. It happened to be the time when the epidemic was released at the end of 2022, and antipyretics and oxygen concentrators were being snatched up everywhere. A drugstore owner who had been in business for 12 years pointed to Kewei Oseltamivir on the shelf and said that this was the leader in his eyes. The goods were sold out as soon as they arrived throughout the winter, and the return rate was three times higher than other brands. ； The friend from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who was following him shook his head. If we really want to talk about the leader in prevention, it has to be Hualan Biotechnology. It has ranked first in the country in terms of batch sales of influenza vaccines for ten consecutive years. You have to pay in advance to get the goods in the third quarter of every year. If you are late, you will not get the goods at all.

This difference is even more obvious in the investment circle. At a small-scale summit in the pharmaceutical industry last year, an old-school value fund manager who managed 2 billion pharmaceutical funds said that he only looked at two hard indicators when choosing a target for the respiratory track: No. 1 in hospital market share for more than 3 years, and at least 2 respiratory-related innovative drugs/vaccines under development in the pipeline. According to this standard, there are no more than 3 companies in the market. Among them, the one he most recognizes is Zhifei Biotech, which has a multi-pipeline layout of RSV vaccine and pneumococcal vaccine. ； But the quantitative private equity manager born in 1995 sitting next to him laughed out loud and said that in their eyes, the leader does not look at these fundamentals at all. Whenever public opinion about respiratory diseases ferments, the leader is the first to raise the limit and the turnover to exceed 1 billion. For example, during the mycoplasma epidemic in 2023, a company that makes azithromycin API rose by 30% in three days. During that time, it was the absolute leader. As for whether the fundamentals can support it, it does not matter at all during the trading cycle.

I have been through real pitfalls in this myself. At the end of 2022, I was deceived by the "respiratory testing leader" promoted by financial bloggers. At that time, it was said that the new coronavirus + influenza were combined, and the demand for testing reagents was going to explode. Only later did I realize that many of the "leaders" you see on the Internet are essentially temporary leaders driven by financial speculation. They have no long-term barriers at all and will disappear as soon as the wind blows.

Last winter, my child was infected with mycoplasma. I went to the Maternal and Child Health Hospital to register and queued for two hours. I heard the parents next to me chatting, saying that the children’s cough syrup at home was from Sunflower, the five-part respiratory test cost 180 yuan, the reagents were from Wondfo Biotech, and the oxygen concentrator used for oxygen inhalation in the hospital was from Yuyue. You see, just by going to the pediatric hospital, you can meet several leading companies in different niches, and no one can say who is the only leader.

Of course, many people say that respiratory diseases will become normalized in the future, with a wave of epidemics every autumn and winter, and leaders with long-term logic will slowly emerge. This makes sense, but it also depends on the situation. For example, for OTC common cold medicine, the threshold is actually very low. If you can do it, I can do it. There is no deep moat at all. Whoever does better marketing every time the trend comes, who sells more ； However, innovative vaccines and high-end ventilators have high technical barriers and long certification cycles, making it difficult to shake their market share. Only then can the leading position of such companies be truly stable.

Anyway, when I look at relevant targets now, I never believe the top ten lists listed on the Internet. I first look at the batch issuance data and market share of hospitals in the past three years, and then I go to the three pharmacies downstairs after get off work and ask the boss which brand of respiratory-related drugs is the fastest and whether there is any shortage, and the probability of being scammed can be reduced by half. By the way, a reminder, all the companies mentioned in this article are just cases and do not constitute any investment advice. This track is extremely cyclical. Ordinary people should not rush in when they see viral searches.